
In the past couple of years, we have heard rumors of Israel considering attacking Iran's nuclear facilities in a preemptive strike to render it incapable of producing nuclear weapons.
First of all, it is no longer a secret that Israel possesses nuclear weapons (Mordechai Vanunu). However, there is one major difference. A nuclear weapon in the hands of a developed, modern and western-thinking nation is not a scary prospect. A nuclear weapon in a rather side-lined and isolated Islamic government hands is another issue altogether.
IAEA latest release of information on Iran's nuclear activities and fears of its nuclear usage has triggered yet another wave of global discussions. On the one hand are those, including me, who see a preemptive strike as the lesser of the evils, while on the other hand, there are those who fight for the right of all nations to develop nuclear technologies that would allow it. Iran has been playing that game for too long.
Some argue that the US, Israel and other major players put pressure on others while having large nuclear weapon arsenals and technologies that far surpass that likely to be developed by Iran in the coming years. All that aside however, there are serious indications Iran is heading towards developing technologies that would allow it to compile the needed weapon technologies. Links with North Korea's secluded regime in terms of technology exchange have been reported numerous times. Mind you, North Korea has already crossed the line of development and successfully tested nuclear weapons in the past.
Similarities and parallels can be drawn between these. However, Iran has considerably more resources than North Korea and unfortunately could cause far more serious destabilization of the region should it successfully develop it. Fallen regimes like Saddam's Iraq or Gadhafi's Libya show that these nations were indeed aiming towards nuclear weapon production and have had programs that produced biological and chemical weaponry.
Essentially, the question arises of whether the prospect of attacking Iran is a real one? We have heard similar reports in the past and to date, none have solidified. This time, I fear, something is different. Most nations, excluding the usual Russia and perhaps Chavez's Venezuela feel that Iran is playing a dangerous game. Nobody will rush into all-out war, but there is a likelihood that an attack that would happen without the need of an army would be an option already considered. The attack would not be expected and would come at a time that Iran would least expect it.
As much as I hate to say it, I believe that a preemptive strike would render the programs useless, destroy the intention and would bring Iran to the negotiation table with the fear that more strikes could follow. It's a like the old fashioned way of a parent slapping a child on the butt for doing something wrong. Without a slap and without enough solid signal, the child will likely continue doing so until someone else stops it and it realizes that it has to do things differently.
I do not usually take sides, but fully understand that Israel has the right to intervene rather sooner than later to limit the danger that Iran poses to the region. When a country's existence is threatened by the leader of another (Ahmadinejad's numerous anti-Israeli comments), it has every right to defend itself by diplomacy and if needed, by military force. The dice has been cast and Israel has the time to see what it decided to do. The burden and consequences should be carried by Iran which, should it be proven that it has been developing weapon technologies, has nothing to be surprised from.
Hopefully, following the newest wave of sanctions led by the US, Canada and other nations, Iran will take a step back and realize that it has reached a tipping point and one which will determine its fate. Should it choose to negotiate, then it will meet a warmer response than that which would await it should it choose to pursue further nuclear development.
I will end this quick entry with the following latin quote as food for thought:
Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum - If you wish for peace, prepare for warHow do you feel? What do you think is the solution?